No models accurately forecast long-term temps
In their letter, “Evidence contradicts letter on climate,” Dhiren Kumar and Ann Bayliss quote other climate data sources claiming to contradict my letter, “Both sides seem to rely on pseudo-science.” The problem with these other sources is that they are all using manipulated and erroneous climate data sets. It is no surprise that the World Meteorological Organization, International Panel on Climate Control and NASA all come to the same erroneous, if not predetermined, conclusions when they use “adjusted” raw temperature data.
The U.S. Historical Climatology Network is a source for surface temperatures in the United States. Its temperature record includes monthly raw temperature data adjustments resulting in a pattern showing current temperatures continuously warmer and earlier temperatures consistently cooler back to 1872. Its adjusted data even eliminated the otherwise well-documented 1930s Dust Bowl heat and drought.
NASA uses surface temperature data that are dependent on surface temperature recording sites. Many of these sites have been documented to be influenced by the Urban Heat Island Effect, whereby formerly rural monitoring sites are now encroached upon by urban construction and airport expansion with resultant heat-producing activities unrelated to global temperature.
The University of Alabama global temperature satellite program samples not only the 30 percent global land mass but also the 70 percent over the open ocean. It is a more representative sampling of total global temperatures — it shows no change in global temperatures for more than 18 years.
No computer climate model has been able to forecast long-term global temperatures accurately, even if they have been manipulated to match a segment of the records in the past (known as hind casting).
Charles G. Battig.